Wood Memorial (G2) Picks

Pace Scenario

There will be no shortage of speed in Saturday’s Wood Memorial (G2). Starting from the inside rail, #1 Napoleon Solo (7-2) might have the best speed in the field, and his position on the inside rail makes it imperative that new jockey Paco Lopez send hard from the inside position. While Napoleon Solo CAN rate, the presence of #2 Talk to Me Jimmy (6-1), one post over, forces the issue, as that horse also has blazing early speed after wiring the field in the Withers last time out. As you move further out, #6 Minorinconvenience (30-1) needs to be forward and is stretching out from one-turn races for the first time, and right next door, #7 Albus (12-1) has shown good speed in each of his last two starts. I believe #9 Bravaro (8-1) with the addition of blinkers is going to put himself into the early mix as well, and #10 Red Zone Runner (30-1) is coming off a gate-to-wire romp at Parx. Finally, #13 Iron Honor (5-2) will want to secure a forward position and clear over from the outside post to save ground going into the first turn. All of this should set up for a strong pace or several horses not getting their desired trip. Either way, expect strong fractions in the early going.

Analysis

The final Wood Memorial (G2) at Aqueduct is going out in style with a competitive 12-horse field where I ultimately landed on #13 Iron Honor (5-2) as my top selection. I have been a fan of the Chad Brown runner since his debut, and while the son of Nyquist will have to overcome the wide post position, I believe he is talented enough to defeat this field. The horse has the maturity, pedigree, and running style to make his two-turn debut a winning one. In his debut, he showed both talent and determination tracking down Crossingthechannel, who got loose on the lead after catching a flier out of the gate. In 95% of maiden races, Crossingthechannel wins that race for fun, but you could see jockey Manny Franco shake the reins around the turn, and Iron Honor put his head down and made up ground in the stretch to win. What made the victory even more impressive was that Crossingthechannel, third-place finisher Right to Party, and fifth-place finisher Sonic Surge all came back to win next time out. Based off his maiden victory, Brown stepped the horse into graded stakes competition off a 10-week layoff in the one-turn Gotham (G3) and he showed his class while not having the easiest trip. He was sandwiched between horses out of the gate but managed to emerge okay and moved into early contention. However, he was joined to his inside by Crown the Buckeye and had speedsters Dirty Rich and Exhibition Only to his outside. Having a tough start and then being stuck between horses on a contested pace in your second career race is not an ideal setting and yet at the top of the stretch he put his nose in front of Crown the Buckeye and never looked back. The competition will be tougher on Saturday, but his first two Beyer Speed Figures (BSF) of a 95 and 90 are good enough to win this race and, more importantly, he is the only horse in the field that has shown the ability to back up big performances. Chad Brown was able to get three more workouts into him leading up to this race and I love the fact the horse works professionally each time he is on the training track. While I might have my questions about Nyquist as a Classic distance sire, his offspring can get nine furlongs, particularly when you combine it with the fact Iron Honor is out of a Blame mare, which typically infuses more stamina into the pedigree. So long as Franco can work out a trip, I believe Iron Honor can track off the pace and before grinding in the stretch and steadily pulling away.

In a race that is expected to have a strong pace I am looking for a runner that should appreciate distance, and theoretically that should be #8 Courting (8-1) for Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher. There have been big expectations for this son of Curlin since before his debut as he is the full sibling to four-time Grade 1-winner Clairiere and cost $5 million as a yearling at the Keeneland September Sale. However, to this point in his career, he has been a disappointment as he finished fourth in debut and then broke his maiden on the lead against a short field at Aqueduct in November. Pletcher stepped him up in the Remsen (G2) and he did not run poorly as he kept on finishing fourth well behind the highly regarded duo of Paladin and Renegade. Based off that effort, Pletcher spotted him in the Risen Star (G2) last time out and added blinkers, but the horse delivered a dull sixth-place performance and was never involved in the race. Prior to the running of the Risen Star (G2), Courting failed to make a positive impression in the paddock. However, even with all the expectations, it is encouraging that Pletcher keeps the horse on the Derby Trail rather than rerouting him elsewhere or giving him time off. The blinkers are coming off, which has not been a great move for Pletcher over the last five years as his horses are just 1-11 when blinkers switch off in graded stakes races. That said, the horse appears to have run better without blinkers in the past, so getting back to basics might be the most important thing. The horse should relish the nine furlongs and will naturally be coming from off the pace under the ride of jockey Kendrick Carmouche. It is notable that Carmouche is picking up the ride on Courting and not riding Napoleon Solo whom he navigated in the Fountain of Youth (G2) last time out. The horse needs to take a big step forward, but I will lean on pedigree and the trusted hand of Todd Pletcher to snag a price underneath.

I look forward to seeing #1 Napoleon Solo (7-2) on Saturday as the horse dazzled in debut and second time out last year when he took the Champagne (G1) by over six lengths while being assigned a 95 BSF. His connections opted not to run in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) off such a big performance and rather knew they had a potential Kentucky Derby horse on their hands and pointed toward the following year. Well, 2026 arrived and the son of Liam’s Map started off in the deep end of the pool against a salty group in the Foutain of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream Park for his first race back. He didn’t have the best trip that day as he broke a little slow and got crossed over from a horse on his outside before trying to move up with the lead group, which forced him wide around both turns. He faded late, which could have been expected considering the nearly 150-day layoff he had since the Champagne (G1). However, Saturday is a new day and a new race. The Chad Summer trainee now has a race under his belt and new jockey Paco Lopez is aboard who will likely send hard from the inside rail and put Napoleon Solo on the lead or sitting a pocket trip. I know the horse can rate when he’s positioned outside of horses, but I think considering his post-position draw, there is no need to get cute with tactics and a birth to the Kentucky Derby on the line. Lopez will put him on the lead and see how far his pedigree takes him. The big question on Saturday will be whether he can run back to that 95 figure from last year or if his other new figures (81 and 83) are more indicative of where he rates in this field. I am leaning more toward the former as the horse should naturally move forward with more conditioning and a better trip while utilizing his speed on a track that can carry it on the rail on certain days.

There are so many horses I want to mention in this fourth spot, like #3 Right to Party (20-1) or #9 Bravaro (8-1), who I both believe have a chance to run well on Saturday, but ultimately, I landed on #4 Steel (12-1) for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott. The second-time starter broke his maiden impressively in debut at Gulfstream Park going a mile where he went from last-to-first in an unlikely performance as the horse was helplessly behind early to the point where he fell off the screen, but he started to make a run around the turn and jockey Junior Alvarado kept after him and the horse kept giving Alvarado more as they got further down the stretch. It was an impressive effort and portended potential big things to come for a horse with some intriguing pedigree, as he is the half-sibling to O Besos, who made a habit of finishing underneath in the Kentucky Derby preps back in 2021 before he ran a respectable fourth in the Kentucky Derby (G1). Traditionally, Mott rarely spots his inexperienced horses in races like this, but we just saw him do this same move in February with Chief Wallabee, who went on to finish second by a nose in the Fountain of Youth (G2) in his second career start. I do not think Steel and Chief Wallabee are in the same league, but they don’t have to be for Steel to run well on Saturday against this field in the Wood Memorial (G2). Jockey Sahin Civaci is taking over the mount as Alvarado is riding down in Keeneland for Opening Weekend, so the jockey switch is an issue, but I expect this horse to show better speed than in debut, but has the value skill of being able to pass horses, so Civaci can place him mid-pack and get first run on the beleaguered frontrunners at the top of the Aqueduct homestretch.